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'''Ментальные модели''' — основанные на предыдущем опыте идеи, стратегии, способы понимания, существующие в уме человека и направляющие его действия. Ментальные модели используются для объяснения причин и следствий, а также придания смысла жизненному [[Опытное знание|опыту]]. Ментальные модели являются естественными и присущи каждому человеку, вне зависимости от того, осознает он это или нет. Ментальные модели не являются неизменными<ref name=" О’Коннор Дж., Макдермотт И.">Искусство системного мышления: Необходимые знания о системах и творческом подходе к решению проблем</ref>.
<!-- n psychology, the term "mental models" is sometimes used to refer to mental representations or mental simulation generally. At other times it is used to refer to [[#Mental models and reasoning|mental models and reasoning]] and to the mental model theory of reasoning developed by [[Philip Johnson-Laird]] and [[Ruth M.J. Byrne]].

[[Jay Wright Forrester]] defined general mental models as:
<blockquote>''"The image of the world around us, which we carry in our head, is just a model. Nobody in his head imagines all the world, government or country. He has only selected concepts, and relationships between them, and uses those to represent the real system."''</blockquote>

In psychology, the term "mental models" is sometimes used to refer to mental representations or mental simulation generally. At other times it is used to refer to [[#Mental models and reasoning|mental models and reasoning]] and to the mental model theory of reasoning developed by [[Philip Johnson-Laird]] and [[Ruth M.J. Byrne]].-->

== История ==
Считается, что впервые термин ментальные модели использовал шотландский психолог Кеннет Крейк ({{lang-en|Kenneth Craik}}) в работе «Природа объяснения» ({{lang-en|The Nature of Explanation}})в 1943 году. Он предположил, что мозг создает «модели действительности в уменьшенном масштабе» и использует их, чтобы предвидеть грядущие события.

Однако еще в 1927 году Жорж-Анри Люке ({{lang-fr|Georges-Henri Luquet}}) в книге «Детский рисунок» ({{lang-en|Children's Drawings}}) утверждал, что дети создают «внутренние модели».

В 1983 году Филип Джонсон-Лэрд ({{lang-en|Philip Johnson-Laird}}) опубликовал работу «Ментальные модели» ({{lang-en|Mental Models: Towards a Cognitive Science of Language, Inference and Consciousness}}). В этом же году Дедре Джентнер ({{lang-en|Dedre Gentner}}) и Альберт Стивенс ({{lang-en|Albert Stevens}}) издали книгу под таким же названием — «Ментальные модели»<ref>[http://www.lauradove.info/reports/mental%20models.htm «Mental models»], report at www.lauradove.info.</ref>.
<!--Since then, there has been much discussion and use of the idea in [[human-computer interaction]] and [[usability]] by researchers including [[Donald Norman]] and Steve Krug (in his book ''[[Don't Make Me Think]]''). Walter Kintsch and [[Teun A. van Dijk]], using the term ''situation model'' (in their book ''Strategies of Discourse Comprehension'', 1983), showed the relevance of mental models for the production and comprehension of [[discourse]].-->

== Способы формирования ==
Ментальные модели формируются и поддерживаются с помощью четырех основных инструментов:
* Вычеркивание — отбор определенной информации из всей потенциально доступной на основании интересов, настроения, озабоченности и бдительности.
* Конструирование — способность видеть то, чего нет, способность в ситуации неясности находить правдоподобные объяснения, принимая их впоследствии за реальность.
* [[Искажение в восприятии сделанного выбора|Искажение]] — изменение пережитого в реальности с преуменьшением одних деталей и преувеличением других.
* [[Обобщение понятий|Обобщение]] — создание ментальных моделей на основании единичного опыта, который мы склонны воспринимать как типичное явление<ref name=" О’Коннор Дж., Макдермотт И." />.

== Виды ментальных моделей ==

Ментальные модели могут как способствовать развитию и [[обучение|обучению]], так и препятствовать ему.

О наличии ограничивающих ментальных моделей говорит следующее:

* Склонность настаивать на том, что ваши идеи абсолютно соответствуют действительности;
* Ограниченный круг интересов, препятствующий получению нового опыта;
* Стремление избегать какой-либо неопределенности и как можно скорее сделать выводы;
* Постоянное уверенное использование таких слов, как «должен», «не должен», «необходимо», «недопустимо»;
* Активное использование обобщающих понятий («все», «каждый», «никто», «никогда»);
* Привычка обобщать, основываясь на единичном случае;
* Склонность винить в проблемах людей, в том числе и себя;
* Отсутствие [[Любопытство|любознательности]];
* Полученный опыт не приводит к пересмотру существующих убеждений.

== [[Список ментальных моделей]] ==
Всего существуют десятки тысяч различных ментальных моделей, имеющих отношение к разным дисциплинам, однако, как сказал известный американский адвокат и экономист Чарли Мангер (Charlie Munger), «всего 80 или 90 основных моделей способны сделать из вас опытного человека, уверенно ориентирующегося в 90% жизненных ситуаций».

* Системный подход (Systems Thinking)
* Анализ сценариев (Scenario analysis)
* Экспоненциальный (степенной) закон (Power law)
* Закон нормального распределения (Normal Distribution)
* Анализ чувствительности (Sensivity analysis)
* Анализ затраты-выгоды (Сost-benefit Analysis)
* Имитационное моделирование (Simulation modeling)
* Эффективность (оптимальность) по Парето (Pareto Efficiency)

<!--==Mental models and reasoning==
One view of human reasoning is that it depends on mental models. In this view, mental models can be constructed from perception, imagination, or the comprehension of discourse (Johnson-Laird, 1983). Such mental models are akin to architects' models or to physicists' diagrams in that their structure is analogous to the structure of the situation that they represent, unlike, say, the structure of logical forms used in formal rule theories of reasoning. In this respect, they are a little like pictures in the "picture" theory of language described by philosopher [[Ludwig Wittgenstein]] in 1922. [[Philip Johnson-Laird]] and [[Ruth M.J. Byrne]] developed a theory of mental models which makes the assumption that reasoning depends, not on logical form, but on mental models (Johnson-Laird and Byrne, 1991).
===Принципы ментальных моделей===
Mental models are based on a small set of fundamental assumptions ([[axiom]]s), which distinguish them from other proposed representations in the [[psychology of reasoning]] (Byrne and Johnson-Laird, 2009). Each mental model represents a possibility. A mental model represents one possibility, capturing what is common to all the different ways in which the possibility may occur (Johnson-Laird and Byrne, 2002). Mental models are iconic, i.e., each part of a model corresponds to each part of what it represents (Johnson-Laird, 2006). Mental models are based on a principle of truth: they typically represent only those situations that are possible, and each model of a possibility represents only what is true in that possibility according to the proposition. However, mental models can represent what is false, temporarily assumed to be true, for example, in the case of [[counterfactual conditionals]] and [[counterfactual thinking]] (Byrne, 2005).

===Reasoning with mental models===
People infer that a conclusion is valid if it holds in all the possibilities. Procedures for reasoning with mental models rely on counter-examples to refute invalid inferences; they establish validity by ensuring that a conclusion holds over all the models of the premises. Reasoners focus on a subset of the possible models of multiple-model problems, often just a single model. The ease with which reasoners can make deductions is affected by many factors, including age and working memory (Barrouillet, et al., 2000). They reject a conclusion if they find a counterexample, i.e., a possibility in which the premises hold, but the conclusion does not (Schroyens, et al. 2003; Verschueren, et al., 2005).

===Критика===
Scientific debate continues about whether human reasoning is based on mental models, versus formal rules of inference (e.g., O'Brien, 2009), domain-specific rules of inference (e.g., Cheng & Holyoak, 2008; Cosmides, 2005), or probabilities (e.g., Oaksford and Chater, 2007). Many empirical comparisons of the different theories have been carried out (e.g., Oberauer, 2006).

==Mental models of dynamics systems: Mental models in system dynamics==

===Characteristics===
A mental model is generally:
* founded on hardly quantifiable, impugnable, obscure, or incomplete facts
* '''[[Cognitive flexibility|flexible]]''' – is considerably variable in positive as well as in negative sense
* effects as '''[[information filter]]{{disambiguation needed|date=January 2013}}''' – causes [[selective perception]], perception of only selected parts of [[information]]
* compared with the complexities surrounding the world, it is ''very limited'', and even when the [[scientific modelling|scientific model]] is extensive and in accordance with a certain [[reality]] in the derivation of [[logical consequence]]s of it. It must take into account such restrictions on [[working memory]]; i.e., well-known rules on the maximum number of elements that people are suddenly able to remember, [[gestaltismus]] or failure of the principles of [[logic]], etc.
* sources of information, which one can not find anywhere else, are available at any time and can be used.<ref name="SUSM2004">{{cite web |url=http://proverbs.cz/media/art/SM_ST.pdf |format=PDF |author=Šusta, Marek |title=Několik slov o systémové dynamice a systémovém myšlení |pages=3–9 |publisher=Proverbs, a.s. |language=Czech |accessdate= 2009-01-15}}</ref><ref name="mild2003">{{cite book |author=Mildeova, S., Vojtko V. |title=Systémová dynamika |year=2003 |isbn=80-245-0626-2 |publisher=Oeconomica |location=Prague |pages=19–24 |language=Czech}}</ref><ref name="forste1997">{{cite web |url=http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ford_sterman_elicit_1.pdf |format=PDF |author=Ford, David N., Sterman, John D. |title=Expert Knowledge Elicitation to Improve Mental and Formal Models |publisher=Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA - Massachusetts Institute of Technology |pages=18–23 |accessdate=11.1.2009}}</ref>

Mental models are a fundamental way to understand organizational learning. Mental models are "deeply held images of thinking and acting."<ref>"LEADING FOR A CHANGE", Ralph Jacobson, 2000, Chapter 5, Page102</ref> Mental models are so basic to understanding of the world that people are hardly conscious of them.

===Expression of mental models of dynamic systems===
Three basic methods are typically used (Groesser, S.N. & Schaffernicht, M. (2012)):
* [[Causal loop diagram|Causal-loop diagrams]] – displaying tendency and a direction of information connections and the resulting causality and feedback loops
* System structure diagram – a more appropriate way to express the structure of a qualitative dynamic system.
* Stock and flow diagram - a way to quantify the structure of a dynamic system
These methods allow showing a mental model of a dynamic system, as an explicit, written model about a certain system based on internal beliefs. Analyzing these graphical representations has been an increasing area of research across many social science fields.<ref>http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art46/</ref> Additionally software tools that attempt to capture and analyze the structural and functional properties of individual mental models such as Mental Modeler (http://www.mentalmodeler.org/),<ref>http://www.mentalmodeler.org/resources/Gray%20et%20al%20Mental%20Modeler%202013.pdf</ref> have recently been developed and used to collect/compare/combine mental model representations collected from individuals for use in social science research, collaborative decision-making, and natural resource planning.

===Mental model in relation to system dynamics and systemic thinking===
In the simplification of reality, creating a model can find a sense of reality, seeking to overcome [[systemic thinking]] and [[system dynamics]].

These two disciplines can help to construct a better coordination with the reality of mental models and simulate it accurately. They increase the probability that the consequences of how to decide and act in accordance with how to plan.<ref name="SUSM2004"/>

* '''[[System dynamics]]''' – extending mental models through the creation of explicit models, which are clear, easily communicated and can be compared with each other.
* '''[[Systemic thinking]]''' – seeking the means to improve the mental models and thereby improve the quality of dynamic decisions that are based on mental models.

===Single and double-loop learning===
After analyzing the basic characteristics, it is necessary to bring the process of changing the mental models, or the process of learning. [[Learning]] is a back-loop [[wikt:process|process]], and [[feedback]] loops can be illustrated as: single-loop learning or double-loop learning.

====Single-loop learning====
Mental models affect the way people work with the information and determine the final decision. The decision itself changes, but the mental models remain the same. It is the predominant method of learning, because it is very convenient. One established mental model is fixed, so the next decision is very fast.

====Double-loop learning====
A double-loop process (''see diagram below'') is used when it is necessary to change the mental model on which a decision depends. Unlike single loops, this model includes a shift in understanding, from simple and static to broader and more dynamic, such as taking into account the changes in the surroundings and the need for expression changes in mental models.<ref name="mild2003"/>
{|
! colspan=3 | Process of learning
|-
| valign=top |
[[File:smycka1eng.png|center|thumb|upright=1.03|Feedback process]]
| valign=top |
[[File:smycka2eng.png|center|thumb|upright=0.80|Single-loop learning]]
| valign=top |
[[File:smycka3eng.png|center|thumb|upright=0.80|Double-loop learning]]
|}-->

==Примечания==
{{reflist}}
== Источники ==
*{{книга|автор= Джозеф О’Коннор, Иан Макдермотт|заглавие= Искусство системного мышления: Необходимые знания о системах и творческом подходе к решению проблем|оригинал= The art of systems thinking|издательство= [[Альпина Паблишер]]|год= 2014|место = М.|серия= 8-е издание
|страниц= 256|isbn= 978-5-9614-4586-2|ref= О’Коннор Дж., Макдермотт И.}}
<!--; Sources
* Barrouillet, P. et al. (2000). Conditional reasoning by mental models: chronometric and developmental evidence. ''Cognit.'' 75, 237-266.
* Byrne, R.M.J. (2005). ''The Rational Imagination: How People Create Counterfactual Alternatives to Reality.'' Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
* Byrne, R.M.J. & Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2009). 'If' and the problems of conditional reasoning. ''Trends in Cognitive Sciences''. 13, 282-287
* Cheng, P.C. and Holyoak, K.J. (2008) Pragmatic reasoning schemas. In ''Reasoning: studies of human inference and its foundations'' (Adler, J.E. and Rips, L.J., eds), pp.&nbsp;827–842, Cambridge University Press
* Cosmides, L. et al. (2005) Detecting cheaters. ''Trends in Cognitive Sciences''. 9,505–506
* Oberauer K. (2006) Reasoning with conditionals: A test of formal models of four theories. ''Cognit. Psychol.'' 53:238–283.
* O’Brien, D. (2009). Human reasoning includes a mental logic. ''Behav. Brain Sci.'' 32, 96–97
* Oaksford, M. and Chater, N. (2007) ''Bayesian Rationality''. Oxford University Press
* Johnson-Laird, P.N. (1983). ''Mental Models: Towards a Cognitive Science of Language, Inference, and Consciousness.'' Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
* Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2006) ''How We Reason''. Oxford University Press
* Johnson-Laird, P.N. and Byrne, R.M.J. (2002) Conditionals: a theory of meaning, inference, and pragmatics. ''Psychol. Rev.'' 109, 646–678
* Schroyens, W. et al. (2003). In search of counterexamples: Deductive rationality in human reasoning. ''Quart. J. Exp. Psychol.'' 56(A), 1129–1145.
* Verschueren, N. et al. (2005). Everyday conditional reasoning: A working memory-dependent tradeoff between counterexample and likelihood use. ''Mem. Cognit''. 33, 107-119.-->
==Дальнейшее чтение==
* Georges-Henri Luquet (2001). ''Children's Drawings''. [[Free Association Books]]. ISBN 1-85343-516-3
* Groesser, S.N. (2012). ''Mental model of dynamic systems''. In N.M. Seel (Ed.). The encyclopedia of the sciences of learning (Vol. 5, pp.&nbsp;2195–2200). New York: Springer.
* Groesser, S.N. & Schaffernicht, M. (2012). ''Mental Models of Dynamic Systems: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead''. System Dynamics Review, 28(1): 46-68, Wiley.
* [http://mentalmodels.princeton.edu/papers/2005HistoryMentalModels.pdf Johnson-Laird, P.N. 2005. The History of Mental Models ]
* [http://cogsci.bme.hu/~babarczy/Orak/BMEpostgrad/semantics/2005spring/Johnson-Lairdmental_models.pdf Johnson-Laird, P.N., 2005. Mental Models, Deductive Reasoning, and the Brain]
* Jones, N. A. et al. (2011). "[http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art46/ Mental Models: an interdisciplinary synthesis of theory and methods]" ''Ecology and Society.''16 (1): 46. 
* Robles-De-La-Torre, G. & Sekuler, R. (2004). "[http://www.roblesdelatorre.com/gabriel/GR-RS-Estimating-Internal-Models.pdf Numerically Estimating Internal Models of Dynamic Virtual Objects]". In: ''ACM Transactions on Applied Perception 1(2)'', pp.&nbsp;102–117.
* [http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/Skeptic%27s_Guide.html Sterman, John D. A Skeptic’s Guide to Computer Models, Massachusetts Institute of Technology]

==Ссылки==
* [https://habrahabr.ru/company/1cloud/blog/308552/ Метальные модели хабр.ру]
* [http://www.mentalmodelsblog.wordpress.com ''Mental models website'']
* [http://www.lauradove.info/reports/mental%20models.htm Mental Models and Usability]
* [http://mentalmodels.princeton.edu/ Mental Models and Reasoning Laboratory]
* [http://www.boxesandarrows.com/whats-your-idea-of-a-mental-model What's Your Idea of a Mental Model?]
* [http://www.eng.ox.ac.uk/samp/ Systems Analysis, Modelling and Prediction Group, University of Oxford]
* [http://www.systemdynamics.org/ System Dynamics Society]

{{перевести|en| Mental model}}
{{Психология}}

[[Категория:Когнитивная психология]]
[[Категория:Ментальные модели]]